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       Free Models
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Welcome to Real Options Valuation, Inc.'s download center. Here you will be able to download trial versions of our software, full versions of the software you have purchased (license information required to install these full versions), product brochures, case studies and white papers, sample training videos to help you get started in using our software, as well as sample Excel models to use with Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software. Check back occasionally for any updated models, examples, and whitepapers. Some of the files require Adobe Acrobat Reader and Windows Media Player. Simply click on the download links to obtain the files. Alternatively, depending on your computer security settings, if nothing happens when you click on the links, simply right-click and select Save Target As to a location on your computer.

BROCHURES 

Software:     Employee Stock Options Valuation Toolkit
Software:     Real Options Super Lattice Solver
Software:     Risk Simulator
Software:     Modeling Toolkit

Software:     Product and Services Competitive Comparison

Training:      Training DVD Set
Training:      Training DVD Detailed Modules List
Training:      Live Seminars Information
Training:      Detailed Course Outlines
References: Biography and Adoption Rate
References: Testimonials

CASE STUDIES, WHITE PAPERS, AND BOOKS 

The following are sample case studies, corporate applications, sample chapters, white papers, and applied examples from Dr. Mun's many books. Feel free to download and disseminate. For the actual cases, please refer to Dr. Johnathan Mun's "Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, and Optimization," (Wiley, 2006) and Dr. Johnathan Mun's "Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, Second Edition," (Wiley, 2005).

White Paper: A Quick Primer on Risk and Decision Analysis for Everyone: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options, Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization
White Paper: A Quick Risk Primer for Actuaries, Insurance Companies, and Banks
White Paper: A Quick Risk Primer for the Military
White Paper: A Comparison between Real Options and Traditional Analysis in Layman's Terms
 

Case Study: Alternate Uses of Real Estate Development Strategy (Real Options and Monte Carlo Simulation)
Case Study: Biopharmaceutical Industry's Manufacturing Flexibility (Real Options)
Case Study: Boeing Company and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (Real Options)
Case Study: Convertible Warrants/Protective Puts in Negotiation and Acquisitions (Financial Options)
Case Study: Credit Risk Analysis in Corporate Restructuring (Simulation and Optimization)
Case Study: Financial Planning with Simulation (Monte Carlo Simulation)
Case Study: High-Tech Manufacturing (Real Options and Simulation)
Case Study: Hospital Risk Management (Simulation and Queuing Theory)
Case Study: Integrated Risk Analysis (Real Options, Simulation, Forecasting, Optimization)
Case Study: Manufacturing in the Automotive Aftermarket (Simulation and Optimization)
Case Study: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (Simulation)
Case Study: Oil and Gas Option to Defer (Real Options)
Case Study: Pharmaceutical and Biotech Deal Structuring (Real Options and Simulation)
Case Study: Pharmaceutical Stage-Gate Development with Sequential Compound Options (Real Options)
Case Study: Real Options in the U.S. Military Strategy (Real Options Analysis and KVA Analysis)
Case Study: Risk Analysis and Real Options in Real Estate Development (Real Options and Simulation)
Case Study: Risk-Based Executive Compensation Valuation (Simulation and Financial Options)
Case Study: U.S. Naval Strategic Warfare Intelligence (Real Options)
Case Study: Valuing Employee Stock Options Under 2004 FAS 123R (Financial Options)

Applied Examples: Multinomial Options
Applied Examples: Options to Abandon
Applied Examples: Options to Choose
Applied Examples: Options to Contract
Applied Examples: Options to Expand
Applied Examples: Sequential Compound Options

Application Whitepaper: Advanced Data Diagnostics

Automated testing for Heteroskedasticity, Multicollinearity, Micronumerosity, Nonlinearity, Stationarity

Application Whitepaper: Data and Statistical Analysis

Automated testing for descriptive statistics, outliers, normality, data fitting and many others

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average)

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Cubic and Nonlinear Splines

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Exponential J and Logistic S Curves

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Markov Switching Regime

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Nonlinear Extrapolation

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Regression and Basic Econometrics

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Stochastic Processes (random walk, mean reversion, jump diffusion)

Application Whitepaper: Forecasting - Time-Series Decomposition

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Continuous Portfolio Optimization

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Discrete Project Selection

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Efficient Frontier

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Inventory Optimization

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Optimal Pricing with Elasticity

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Optimal Timing

Application Whitepaper: Optimization - Stochastic Optimization

Application Whitepaper: Project Management (PERT, CPM, Time and Cost Estimation)

Application Whitepaper: Risk Simulation Basics

Application Whitepaper: Six Sigma - CPK Capability, Control Charts, Specification Models

Application Whitepaper: Six Sigma - Parametric and Nonparametric Hypothesis Tests

Application Whitepaper: Six Sigma - Sample Size Determination

Application Whitepaper: Six Sigma - Statistical Probability Determination

Book Chapter 1 from Real Options Analysis, Second Edition (Wiley 2005)
Book Chapter 1 from Modeling Risk: Applying Simulation, Real Options, Forecasting, Optimization (Wiley 2006)
Book Chapter 2 from Modeling Risk: Applying Simulation, Real Options, Forecasting, Optimization (Wiley 2006)

Corporate Applications: Gemplus International S.A.
Corporate Applications: Intellectual Properties LLC
Corporate Applications: Schlumberger, Inc.
Corporate Applications: Sprint
Corporate Applications: The Timken Company

SOFTWARE DOWNLOAD: RISK SIMULATOR 4.1

(ENGLISH, JAPANESE, CHINESE, SPANISH)

FULL & TRIAL VERSION DOWNLOAD: Download the Risk Simulator 4.1 software

This is a full version of the software but will expire in 10 days, during which you can purchase a license to permanently unlock the software. Please first uninstall all previous versions of Risk Simulator before installing this newer version. Also, please turn OFF User Access Control before installing on Windows Vista (please see the Vista notes below for directions). Send us an e-mail with your Hardware ID (see below), name and company name, to request a longer trial period.

FULL VERSION INFO: To permanently unlock the software, purchase a license and e-mail us your Hardware ID (after installing the software, start Excel, click on Risk Simulator, License, and e-mail admin@realoptionsvaluation.com the 11 to 18 digit Hardware ID located on the bottom left of the splash screen). We will then e-mail you a permanent license file. Save this file to your hard drive, start Excel, click on Risk Simulator, License, Install License and point to the location of this license file, restart Excel and you are now permanently licensed.

System requirements, FAQ, and additional resources:
Windows XP or Vista (32 and 64 bit), Excel XP or 2003 or 2007, 512 MB RAM Minimum (1 GB recommended), 100 MB Hard Drive, administrative rights, and .NET Framework 2.0 or later. You can use our troubleshooter tool to determine if you have all these and to download the required files. Please also view the FAQ if you have any questions about system requirements or problems installing the software.
 

Windows Vista: This software works with Vista and Excel 2007. Please follow the instructions below for installing the permanent or extended license in Vista. 

Turn off User Access Control before installing the license file for Risk Simulator:

i. In Windows Vista, click on Start l Control Panel l Classic View l User Accounts l Turn on User Access Control On or Off, and uncheck Use User Account Control) and then reboot the computer. You can now install the permanent/extended license that you have purchased by starting Excel and clicking on Risk Simulator l License l Install License, and browse to the license file you received when you purchased the software.

ii. When restarting the computer, you will get a message that UAC is turned off. You can turn this message off by going to the Control Panel, Security Center, Change the Way Security Center Alerts Me, Don’t Notify Me and Don’t Display the Icon. Either that or you can turn UAC back on after completing the license installation.

SOFTWARE DOWNLOAD: MODELING TOOLKIT (BASEL II)

This is the Modeling Toolkit software (Basel II Modeling Toolkit) with over 800 functions and tools, and 300 Excel/SLS modeling templates. You can download the list of functions and models here. if you wish to obtain a trial version of this product, please send us an e-mail at admin@realoptionsvaluation.com and we will send you the secure link location and trial license key to temporarily activate the software. This software works seamlessly with Risk Simulator and Real Options SLS.

SOFTWARE DOWNLOAD: REAL OPTIONS SLS 3.0 (WITH SUPER SPEED)

(ENGLISH, JAPANESE, CHINESE, SPANISH)

FULL & TRIAL VERSION DOWNLOAD: Download the Real Options Super Lattice Solver

TRIAL VERSION INFO: This fully functional full version expires in 14 days, upon which you will need to purchase the software, and we will e-mail you a permanent unlock code for your computer.

FULL VERSION INFO: If you are purchasing or have already purchased the software, simply download and install the software, and install. You will need to input TWO license keys.

If you have already purchased the software, simply download and install the software. You will need to input TWO license keys. At the end of your 14-day trial period perform the following:

1. Start SLS 3.0 and click on Install License. Then, simply e-mail admin@realoptionsvaluation.com your Hardware ID and we will send you the first permanent license file for the software. Once the license file is received, simply start SLS 3.0, click on Install License and click Activate. Locate the license we e-mailed you.

2. After your trial period, start SLS FUNCTIONS (Start │ Programs │ Real Options Valuation │ Real Options SLS 3.0 │ Excel Functions) and when prompted for a permanent license, simply write down and e-mail use the Fingerprint ID and we will send you the permanent license key to unlock the software’s functions.

System requirements, FAQ, and additional resources:
Windows XP or Vista, Excel XP or 2003 or 2007, 512 MB RAM, 30 MB Hard Drive, administrative rights, and .NET Framework 2.0. Please view the FAQ if you have any questions about system requirements or problems installing the software. You can use our troubleshooter tool to determine if you have all these and to download the required files and to determine the Hardware ID and Fingerprint ID for your system.
View Real Options SLS 3.0 Installation Instructions Video
Installation Instructions for Real Options SLS

Windows Vista: This software works with Vista. Please follow the instructions below for installing this software on Vista. All other requirements and licensing procedures are the same as above.

To make the the SLS Excel Solution file works (after the installation is complete) in Excel 2007, start the SLS Excel Functions first, then start the Excel Solution file.

SOFTWARE DOWNLOAD: EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS VALUATION TOOLKIT 1.1

FULL DOWNLOAD: Download the Employee Stock Options Toolkit

A license key is required to install the full version. Once you purchased the full license, all you have to do is to e-mail us your Hardware Fingerprint (at the end of the software installation, you will be asked for a key and the fingerprint is provided to you then). Send the fingerprint to admin@realoptionsvaluation.com and we will send you the permanent license key within a few hours of your purchase. Enter the key we e-mailed you to permanently unlock the software.  Sorry but there are no free trials on this software.

System requirements, FAQ, and additional resources:
Windows XP or Vista, Excel XP or 2003 or 2007, 256 MB RAM, 10 MB Hard Drive, and administrative rights. Please view the FAQ if you have any questions about system requirements or problems installing the software.

ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS

These are enterprise software sold only to corporations and requires consulting implementation. Please contact us for more details.

SOFTWARE MANUALS

The following are the software user manuals and help files available for download. You will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view some of these files.

Risk Simulator User Manual

Risk Simulator Help

Real Options SLS User Manual

Employee Stock Options Toolkit User Manual

SAMPLE VIDEOS 

To download these sample DVDs, right-click on the desired link and select Save Target As, and save the AVI video file to your hard drive. These sample videos live-motion and voice narrated, and are playable on your computer using Windows Media Player or other video players capable of AVI playback. For older versions of Windows Media Player, you may hear the sound but do not see the video. In that case, download this CODEC and install it (download and double click to Run) and try again. The video will now be playable.

You can simply click on any of these links to view the streaming videos.

BASIC GETTING STARTED VIDEOS

Basic Introduction to Risk Analysis and Risk Simulator Software

Basic Introduction to Real Options Analysis (Theory)

Basic Introduction to Real Options SLS Software (Application)

DETAILED GETTING STARTED VIDEOS
 

We also have some more detailed Risk Analysis and Risk Simulator software getting started videos you can download and watch. These videos total about 2 hours. For even more detailed training, please check out our set of 12 Training DVDs (over 30 hours) or our hands-on Certified in Risk Management seminars (4 days). The following are updated detailed getting started videos on Risk Simulator 3.0, featuring all the new tools such as Auto ARIMA, GARCH, JS Curves, Cubic Spline, Maximum Likelihood, Data Diagnostics, Statistical Analysis, Modeling Toolkit, and more...

RS3 Video A - Introduction, Quick Simulation, Toolbars, Languages (English, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese)
RS3 Video B - Web Downloads, CRM (Certified in Risk Management)
RS3 Video C - Basic Simulation Setup, Report Generation, Extracting Data
RS3 Video D - Basic Simulation, Data Fitting, Sensitivity Tornado, Statistical Analysis, Data Diagnostics
RS3 Video E - PDF/CDF/ICDF Probability Analysis,  Bootstrap Simulation, Correlated Simulation
RS3 Video F - Optimization (Static, Dynamic, Stochastic), Portfolio Allocation, Project Selection
RS3 Video G - Forecasting (all 13 advanced techniques like ARIMA, GARCH, Spline, Markov, Time-Series, etc)
RS3 Video H - Modeling Toolkit and Real Options SLS Brief Introductions

Watch all Videos A-H here!

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MODEL BUILDING IN EXCEL

VIDEO001 - Basic functions in Excel, using equations and functions (9:46)

VIDEO002 - Absolute and relative addressing in functions and named ranges in equations (10:54)

INTERMEDIATE MODEL BUILDING IN EXCEL

VIDEO003 - Introduction to Visual Basic modeling and custom functions development (7:29)

VIDEO004 - Creating customized and complex functions in Visual Basic for Applications in Excel (6:46)

VIDEO005 - Building a Discounted Cash Flow model, Using functions, macros and forms, and running Monte Carlo simulation (15:03)

VIDEO006 - Matrix manipulation, data analysis, VLookup, Macros, worksheet protection (25:50)

ADVANCED MODEL BUILDING IN EXCEL

VIDEO007 - Installing and running the Financial Modeling Toolkit (4:03)
VIDEO008 - Financial Modeling Toolkit fundamentals, applied financial analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, advanced functions (8:42)

VIDEO009 - Introduction to Risk Analysis and Risk Simulator Software

VIDEO010 - Introduction to Real Options Analysis (Theory)

VIDEO011 - Introduction to Real Options SLS Software (Application)

Click here to download the sample Excel models used in the training videos

SAMPLE MODELS

To download these sample Excel models, simply right-click on the desired link and select Save Target As, and save these models to your hard drive. Note that these models and example files are designed to work only with Risk Simulator and Real Options SLS software, and may not work properly without these software installed on your computer.

Download ALL MODELS AND EXAMPLES

Risk Simulator Models for Monte Carlo Simulation, Forecasting, Statistical Analysis and Optimization
The following are sample Excel models that require Risk Simulator to run. Each model has an instructions tab that will help you get started in understanding and running the models.

Basic Simulation Model
Correlated Simulation Model
Correlation Effects Model
Data Fitting Model
DCF Model with ROI Analysis and Volatility Estimates
Hypothesis Testing and Bootstrap Simulation Model
Multivariate Regression Analysis
Nonlinear Extrapolation Forecasting
Optimization: Linear Optimization Using Discrete Integer Variables
Optimization: Nonlinear Optimization Using Continuous Decision Variables
Optimization: Nonlinear Optimization Stochastic Optimization
Queuing Models
Regression Diagnostics
Retirement Funding (with Inflation) Applying VBA Macros
Statistical Analysis
Stochastic Process Forecasting
Time-Series Forecasting Models
Tornado and Sensitivity Analysis for Linear Models
Tornado and Sensitivity Analysis for Nonlinear Models

Real Options Super Lattice Solver (SLS) Models for the Single-Asset SLS
These models require Real Options SLS software to run. Please see Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, Second Edition (Wiley Finance, 2005) for details on running some of these examples.

Abandonment Option (American Option)
Abandonment Option (Bermudan Option)
Abandonment Option (Customized Option)
Abandonment Option (European Option)
American Call Option with Dividends
Barrier Option - Down and In Lower Barrier Call Option
Barrier Option - Down and Out Lower Barrier Call
Barrier Option - Up and In Upper Barrier Call
Barrier Option - Up and In, Down and In Double Barrier Call
Barrier Option - Up and Out Upper Barrier Call
Barrier Option - Up and Out, Down and Out Double Barrier Call
Basic American, European, versus Bermudan Call Options
Case Study - Warrants - Combined Value
Contraction American and European Options
Contraction Bermudan Option
Contraction Customized Option
Employee Stock Options - Simple American Call Option
Employee Stock Options - Simple European Call Option
Employee Stock Options - Suboptimal Exercise Behavior
Employee Stock Options - Vesting with Suboptimal Behavior
Employee Stock Options - Vesting Period
Employee Stock Options - Vesting, Blackouts, Suboptimal Exercise, and Forfeitures
European Call Option with DividendsExotic Chooser Option
Expand Contract Abandon American and European Option
Expand Contract Abandon Bermudan Option
Expand Contract Abandon Customized Option
Expansion American and European Option
Expansion Bermudan Option
Expansion Customized Option
Plain Vanilla Call Option I
Plain Vanilla Call Option II
Plain Vanilla Call Option III
Plain Vanilla Call Option IV
Plain Vanilla Put Option

Real Options Super Lattice Solver (SLS) Models for the Multiple-Asset MSLS
These models require Real Options SLS software to run. Please see Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, Second Edition (Wiley Finance 2005) for details on running some of these examples.

Exotic Complex Floating American Chooser
Exotic Complex Floating European Chooser
Multiple Asset Competing Options (3D Binomial)
Multiple Phased Complex Sequential Compound Option
Multiple Phased Sequential Compound Option
Multiple Phased Simultaneous Compound Option
Simple Two Phased Sequential Compound Option
Simple Two Phased Simultaneous Compound Option

Real Options Super Lattice Solver (SLS) Models for the Multinomial MNLS
These models require Real Options SLS software to run. Please see Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, Second Edition (Wiley Finance 2005) for details on running some of these examples.

Dual-Asset Rainbow Option Pentanomial Lattice
Jump Diffusion Calls and Puts using Quadranomial Lattices
Mean Reverting Calls and Puts using Trinomial Lattices
Simple Calls and Puts using Trinomial Lattices