WE ARE PROUD TO ANNOUNCE THE NEW RELEASE OF RISK SIMULATOR 3.2, WHICH MANY FEATURE ENHANCEMENTS AND NEW TOOLS AND ALGORITHMS. PLEASE CLICK ON THE DOWNLOADS LINK TO GET A TRIAL COPY.

How do you make critical business decisions? Do you consider the risks of your projects and decisions, or are you more focused on returns? Do you have a hard time trying to understand what risk is, let alone quantifying risk? Well, our Risk Simulator software will help you identify, quantify, and value risk in your projects and decisions. 

Click here to download a copy of the software brochure. Please also visit our download center for more information on other free downloads (brochures, sample getting started and demonstration videos, free Excel models to use with Risk Simulator, case studies, and other interesting topics).

· Monte Carlo Simulation
· Optimization
· Statistical and Analytical Tools
· Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Forecasting

Plus Risk Simulator is integrated with the Real Options Super Lattice Solver software, for solving strategic real options, financial options, and employee stock options.

SOFTWARE DETAILS

Monte Carlo Simulation

· 24 statistical distributions and one customizable empirical nonparametric distribution
· Complete integration with Excel (dynamic linking, VBA macros, and others)
· Comprehensive simulation and analytical reports for each functionality
· Correlated simulation with distributional truncation
· Multidimensional simulations with uncertain input parameters
· Simulation profiling for scenario analysis in simulation
· Traditional Monte Carlo Methods
· Advanced Correlation Copula Methods
 

Forecasting

· ARIMA models (time-series and panel)
· Auto-ARIMA models (time-series and panel)
· Basic Econometric Modeling (time-series and panel)
· Cubic Spline Forecasting (time-series and panel)
· Exponential J-Curves and Logistic S-Curves (time-series)
· GARCH Volatility Forecasts (time-series)
· Markov Chain Forecasts (time-series)
· Maximum Likelihood Models (cross-sectional)
· Multiple regression analysis (time-series, cross-sectional and panel)
· Nonlinear extrapolation (time-series)
· Stochastic process forecasting (time-series)
· Time-series analysis forecasting (time-series)
 

Optimization

. Optimization with continuous variables
. Optimization with discrete integer variables
. Optimization with mixed continuous and discrete variables
. Linear optimization
. Multiphasic optimization
. Nonlinear optimization
. Static optimization (fast single-point estimates)
. Dynamic optimization (simulation with optimization)
. Stochastic optimization (multiple iterations with distributions of decision variables)
 

Statistical and Analytical Tools

· Data Diagnostics (Autocorrelation, Correlation, Distributive Lags, Heteroskedasticity, Micronumerosity, Multicollinearity, Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, Normality, Outliers, · Stochastic Parameter Estimations)
· Data extraction and forecast extraction
· Distribution probability analysis (PDF, CDF, ICDF)
· Distributional fitting of existing data
· Hypothesis testing of distributions
· Nonparametric bootstrap simulation
· Scenario analysis
· Sensitivity analysis
· Statistical Analysis (Autocorrelation, Data Fitting, Descriptive Statistics, Hypothesis Tests, Nonlinear Extrapolation, Normality, Stochastic Parameter Estimation, Time-Series Forecasting)
· Tornado and spider charts
 

 SUPPORT MATERIALS

· 7 books on risk analysis, simulation, forecasting, optimization, real options, and options valuation written by the software’s   creator
· Training DVD on risk analysis (simulation, forecasting, optimization, real options, and applied business statistics)
· Live training courses on risk management, simulation, forecasting, optimization, and real options
· Detailed user manual, help file, and an extensive library of example files
· Live project consultants

ADDITIONAL FEATURES

· A user-friendly interface
· A comprehensive User Manual, illustrating each module’s functionality with case examples and applications
· Short Strategic Business Cases illustrating real-life applications of risk analysis, simulation, forecasting, optimization, and real options, starting with the framing of the problem through to its software solution

TRAINING AND CONSULTING

Advanced analytical tools such as the Risk Simulator and Real Options SLS software might be easy to use but may get the analyst in trouble if used inappropriately. Sufficient theoretical understanding coupled with pragmatic application experience is vital; therefore, training is critical. The Risk Analysis course is a two-day seminar focused on hands-on software training. Topics covered include the basics of risk and uncertainty, using Monte Carlo simulation (pitfalls and due diligence), truncation, correlated simulations, statistics for interpreting the results, distributional fitting, bootstrap simulation, sensitivity analysis, forecasting (time-series and cross-sectional forecasting), extrapolation, stochastic process forecasting, linear optimization (integer and continuous optimization), and many more exciting topics.
 
Other courses are also offered, including Real Options for Analysts for the analysts who want to begin applying real options in their work, but lack the hands-on experience with real options analytics and modeling. This two-day course covers how to set up real options models, apply real options, and solve real options problems using simulation, closed-form mathematics, and binomial lattices. It focuses on detailed case studies and practice valuation models using the SLS software. Also available are other risk analysis courses with an emphasis on customized on-site trainings (simulation, forecasting, optimization, and real options trainings customized to your firm’s exact needs based on your business cases). Consulting services are also available, including the framing of risk analysis problems, simulation, forecasting, real options, risk analytics, model building, decision analysis, and software customization.